Finance

The Housing Report: the 30-year mortgage rate tops 7.2%

Beau Brummell · November 4, 2026

The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.24%, its highest since late 2023. Existing-home sales are down on a year ago, supply is up and prices are…

The 30-year mortgage rate has climbed more than a full point since February, to its highest level since late 2023, and the housing market has slowed accordingly. Sales are down on a year ago. Supply is up. Prices are still rising, just barely.

7.24%average 30-year fixed rate, Freddie Mac, Oct 29

3.99mexisting-home sales, annual rate, September

$417,500median existing-home price, September

4.8 monthssupply of existing homes for sale

Rates: off the peak, still high

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% on October 29. That's down from 7.40% on October 8 and 15, the highest reading since November 2023, but it's well above where the year began. As recently as February 26 the rate was 5.98%. A year ago, on October 30, 2025, it was 6.17%. The 15-year fixed rate stood at 6.60%, against 5.41% a year earlier.

Put in monthly terms, the move is large. On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest at 5.98% come to about $2,393 a month. At 7.24% the same loan costs about $2,726, an extra $333 a month, or roughly $4,000 a year, before taxes and insurance.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's survey, published this morning, tells a similar story. Its average contract rate on a conforming 30-year loan fell to 7.30% in the week ending October 30, from 7.37%. "Mortgage rates drifted down to their lowest level since September 2026 last week in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to hold on additional rate hikes at its October meeting," said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist. "While the 30-year rate declined to 7.3 percent, activity is still quite slow."

The numbers bear him out. Total applications fell 1.2% on the week. The unadjusted purchase index was 19% below the same week last year, and refinance applications were 60% lower. Borrowers are reaching for adjustable rates to cut their first payments: the ARM share of applications rose to 11.4%, the highest since September 2025, according to the MBA. Its average 5/1 ARM rate was 6.29%.

The 30-year fixed rate rose from 5.98% in February to 7.40% in mid-October. Source: Freddie Mac. Chart: The Graze

Existing homes: slow, but not stuck

The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes rose 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million. That's 2.2% below September 2025, and Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, pointed out that August and September were the two slowest months for sales this year. "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home," he said.

Supply is building. There were 1.60 million homes for sale at the end of September, up 4.6% from a year earlier, equal to 4.8 months at the current pace of sales, against 4.5 months a year ago. The median time on the market was 33 days.

The median price was $417,500, up 1.3% from $412,300 a year earlier. That makes 39 straight months of year-over-year gains, but the gains are now close to zero. Prices are rising fastest in the Northeast, where the median of $523,600 is up 4.7%, and in the Midwest, up 3.1% to $329,600. In the South the median rose 0.2% to $361,000. In the West it slipped 0.3% to $613,600.

Who is buying is shifting too. First-time buyers made up 31% of sales, up from 30% a year earlier. All-cash deals fell to 27% from 30%. Investors and second-home buyers rose to 20% of sales from 15% in August. Yun's advice was blunt: sellers "need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers."

New homes: builders are pulling back

The Census Bureau and HUD reported that new single-family home sales ran at an annual rate of 676,000 in September, 0.6% below August and 5.3% below a year earlier. Builders had 476,000 new homes for sale, an 8.4-month supply at the current pace. The median new-home price was $400,400, down 3.9% from a year earlier, and it was below the median price of an existing home.

That gap explains a lot about what builders are doing. Housing starts fell 5.2% in September to an annual rate of 1.221 million, 7.4% below a year earlier. Single-family starts were 859,000. Building permits, a guide to future construction, were 1.400 million, 3.0% lower than a year earlier, with single-family permits down 4.0% on the month to 845,000. Completions were 14.0% below September 2025.

Prices: still edging up

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, which tracks repeat sales of the same houses, rose 2.1% in the year to August, according to index data published on October 27. That was a little faster than July's 1.9%. On an unadjusted basis the index dipped slightly between July and August, which is normal for late summer. These figures cover contracts signed before the worst of the autumn rise in rates, so September and October will be the test.

Renting and owning

The Census Bureau's quarterly survey found the national rental vacancy rate rose to 7.6% in the third quarter, from 7.3% in the second and 7.1% a year earlier. More empty apartments generally means less pressure on rents. The homeowner vacancy rate held at 1.2%. The homeownership rate was 65.5%, which Census says is not statistically different from a year earlier or the previous quarter.

What it means

For buyers, the trade-off has changed. Borrowing is the most expensive it has been in three years, but there's more choice, homes are taking longer to sell and sellers are more willing to deal. Builders, sitting on more than eight months of supply, are pricing below the resale market. Anyone who locked a rate in the spring did well. Anyone who waited for lower rates is still waiting.

For sellers, the message from the data is the one NAR gave: price for the market you're in, not the one you remember.

The week ahead

Freddie Mac publishes its next weekly rate survey on Thursday, November 5. The Census Bureau's October housing starts are due on November 18, and October new-home sales on November 25. The next Case-Shiller release, covering September, is due on November 24.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct 29, 2026; Mortgage Bankers Association, Nov 4, 2026; National Association of Realtors, Oct 13, 2026; US Census Bureau new residential construction, Oct 20, 2026, and new residential sales, Oct 27, 2026; Census Housing Vacancy Survey, Oct 28, 2026; S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index via FRED. Payments are principal and interest only, The Graze calculation. Top photo: a newly built house for sale in Broadmoor, New Orleans. Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. The Housing Report runs every Friday.